Its politics used to be defined by the Cold War. Today, the landscape is one of religious divisions and resurgent populism
Brazil’s economic crisis has polarised the world’s largest Catholic country between right and left. In this year’s general election, more than half of sitting members of Congress lost their seats, while far-right provocateur Jair Bolsonaro had a strong lead in the presidential race and is almost certain to be elected in the second round on October 28.
There had already been signs that the “pink tide” of populist left-wing governments in Latin America was being reversed, with conservatives returning to power in Argentina and Chile, while Venezuela’s socialist experiment is in meltdown. But Bolsonaro is far from being a sober conservative. A former army officer and long-serving congressman, he has drawn attention abroad for his opposition to feminism and gay rights – but this is only part of a long history of provocations, which include him saying that the problem with Brazil’s former military dictatorship is that it didn’t kill enough people.
Bolsonaro is a man who summons up extreme reactions. His millions of followers are fiercely devoted to the “Messias” (his middle name), and Evangelical pastors address his rallies. At the same time, many Brazilians fear that he might usher in a fascist regime. He was stabbed at a rally in September. Shut out of the mainstream media, his campaign has gone viral on social media, particularly YouTube. And he looks like winning despite the thinly veiled hostility of the Catholic bishops.
It is not surprising that an outsider candidate would perform strongly this year. The economy has only begun a weak recovery from the 2014-16 recession, with unemployment still rising. At the same time, the Lava Jato (“Car Wash”) corruption scandals have implicated dozens of politicians from all the main parties. The left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), which in the past would have benefited from public anger, was in power at the time of the crash, and its leader, former president Lula da Silva, was imprisoned in July on charges of accepting bribes. At the time, Lula had been leading in the polls; after his conviction, Bolsonaro surged into the lead.
The crash combined with the scandals have dealt a huge blow to Brazil’s political establishment, opening the door to Bolsonaro, who may have been seen as a fringe extremist, but also had a reputation as one of the few political figures in the country who was not personally corrupt.
At the same time, the country has been hit by a crime wave that saw almost 64,000 murders recorded last year, while the police have withdrawn from parts of Rio de Janeiro because the government lacks the money to pay them. This is an ideal issue for the Rio congressman, whose main demand has been for the police to be allowed to shoot suspected criminals with impunity. Even his nostalgia for the dictatorship has not hurt him in a country where disillusionment with politics is so deep that one poll showed that a third of Brazilians would support a military takeover.
Meanwhile, the Catholic bishops have been issuing warnings about the danger of violence, and, though they won’t endorse a candidate, would clearly be much more comfortable with the PT’s Fernando Haddad, running as a surrogate for his imprisoned leader, Lula. Haddad recently met Dom Leonardo Steiner, general secretary of the bishops’ conference. According to Steiner, Haddad laid out his plans for government, while he gave the Church’s views on issues including abortion, the environment, indigenous rights and corruption.
The legacy of the dictatorship not only informs today’s political divide in Brazil, but it has also influenced the Church. In the 1970s one could find bishops who supported the military government on the grounds that the threat of communism was greater, while priests tied to the liberation theology movement were heavily involved in building the unions that went on to form the PT.
Today, the Cold War belongs to an increasingly distant past, the PT has moderated politically, and any young priests from that period have gone on to become bishops. Personal ties with Lula and his colleagues remain strong, and there are deep political affinities – except on the issues of abortion and gay marriage, although Brazilian Catholics tend to lean left on those issues, while Bolsonaro and his Evangelical supporters are closer to the Church’s official position.
And that divide is hugely important – one significant element in the rise of the Brazilian right has been the shift in the country’s religious demography. Since 2000 the Catholic share of the population has dropped from around 75 per cent to little more than 60 per cent. Unlike in Europe, though, this is not due to an overall decline in religious belief, with the non-religious remaining a small minority. The main element driving this shift is an explosive growth of Evangelical Protestant churches, mostly Pentecostal, with Evangelicals now reckoned to be around 30 per cent of the population, and some experts predicting that on current trends, Catholics could be in a minority as early as 2030.
Evangelicals have also become increasingly assertive in Brazilian politics, with the popular Pentecostal leader Pastor Everaldo Pereira having stood as a presidential candidate in 2014 for the small Social Christian Party, though more often they have preferred to support Evangelical candidates belonging to one of the larger parties.
Religion does not map neatly onto the political left-right divide – there have been prominent Evangelicals in the left-wing PT, and the activist movement Frente de Evangélicos has been loud in denouncing Bolsonaro’s message as inconsistent with that of Christ. However, Evangelicals’ denominational links with the United States, and the popularity of prosperity gospel preachers, who promise material rewards for a righteous life, are a poor fit for the populist left in Brazil and across Latin America.
Bolsonaro’s rising support and likely victory cannot be understood without his long courtship of this growing demographic. His rapport with Evangelicals has not been seriously dented by his outrageous persona. Like Donald Trump, he may even benefit from the fact that he never retreats or apologises under fire. His wife and one of his sons are practicing Evangelicals, cementing his credibility further.
Bolsonaro’s own religious views are not so clear. Although he was baptised in the Jordan River in 2016 by Pastor Everaldo, and although for 10 years he attended a Baptist church, he says that he has not renounced his Catholic faith. This ambiguity does fit with Brazil’s porous boundaries between religious traditions – not just Afro-Brazilian religions like Candomblé which have co-existed with Catholicism for centuries, but more recently there is evidence of frequent switching between Catholicism and Evangelical Protestantism.
The picture is further complicated by the fact that one of the most vital elements of the Catholic Church in Brazil is a charismatic movement that is not too distant in style from Pentecostal churches.
But this is not simply a religious dispute. Brazil’s political polarisation runs within the Catholic and Evangelical communities as well as between them. Though growing, the Evangelicals are not close to being a majority of society yet, and are far from monolithic.
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro could not have reached the position he has without the support of millions of Catholics. The hostility of Brazil’s bishops seems to have been no more effective than the antagonism of the Italian bishops to hard-right interior minister Matteo Salvini, currently Italy’s most popular politician. And with Brazil’s Catholic majority disappearing, the bishops will have to work hard to prove their relevance in the future.
Jon Anderson is a freelance writer
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